Introduction: AMOC and Geoengineering Context

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a critical component of the global climate system, transporting approximately 18-22 Sverdrups of warm, salty surface water northwards and returning cold, dense water southwards at depth (IPCC AR6, 2023). Since the mid-20th century, AMOC has weakened by about 15% due to freshwater influx from accelerated Greenland ice melt, which increased by 27% between 2000-2020 (NASA, 2022; Rahmstorf et al., 2020). This weakening threatens to disrupt climate patterns across the North Atlantic and beyond, raising concerns about extreme weather, sea-level rise, and ecosystem shifts.

Geoengineering proposals, such as constructing a dam across the Bering Strait to reduce Pacific freshwater flow into the Arctic Ocean, aim to stabilize AMOC by restoring salinity and density gradients (Utrecht University, 2024). This approach represents a high-risk, high-reward intervention requiring rigorous scientific validation, international cooperation, and governance frameworks to manage ecological and geopolitical risks.

Mechanism and Importance of AMOC

• AMOC circulates warm, salty surface water northwards in the Atlantic, where it cools, increases in density, sinks, and returns southwards at depth, redistributing heat globally (IPCC AR6, 2023).
• This circulation moderates climate in Europe, North America, and West Africa, influencing monsoon patterns and Atlantic hurricane activity.
• Freshwater input from Greenland ice melt dilutes ocean salinity, reducing water density and weakening the sinking limb of AMOC, thereby slowing the circulation (Rahmstorf et al., 2020).
• AMOC weakening is linked to increased extreme weather events, sea-level rise on the US east coast, and disruptions in marine ecosystems (World Bank, 2023).

Geoengineering Proposal: Bering Strait Dam

• The Bering Strait connects the Pacific and Arctic Oceans, allowing significant freshwater inflow from the Pacific into the Arctic Ocean, which eventually influences North Atlantic salinity.
• Closing or partially damming the Bering Strait could reduce Pacific freshwater inflow into the Arctic by up to 30%, potentially increasing salinity and stabilizing AMOC (Utrecht University, 2024).
• Estimated costs exceed USD 100 billion, accounting for engineering, environmental mitigation, and geopolitical complexities (Utrecht University, 2024).
• Potential benefits include preventing annual global economic losses exceeding USD 1 trillion from climate extremes linked to AMOC slowdown (IPCC AR6, 2023; World Bank, 2023).

Legal and Institutional Frameworks Relevant to Geoengineering

• India’s Environment Protection Act, 1986 (Sections 3 and 5) empowers the central government to take measures for environmental protection, potentially covering geoengineering activities.
• The Biological Diversity Act, 2002 (Section 3) mandates conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity, relevant for assessing ecological risks of geoengineering.
• Internationally, the London Protocol (1996) under the International Maritime Organization (IMO) regulates ocean fertilization and marine geoengineering, though only voluntary guidelines exist (IMO, 2021).
• The UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), 1982 (Part XII) governs marine environmental protection, relevant for ocean-based geoengineering interventions.
• No specific Indian legislation currently governs geoengineering research or deployment, creating a regulatory gap.

Key Institutions Involved

• IPCC provides scientific assessments on climate change impacts, including AMOC dynamics.
• IOC-UNESCO coordinates oceanographic research relevant to AMOC monitoring.
• WMO monitors global climate systems and ocean circulation patterns.
• IMO regulates marine geoengineering under the London Protocol.
• Utrecht University conducted the recent feasibility study on the Bering Strait dam.
• MoEFCC, India is responsible for environmental governance and policy formulation.

Economic Considerations

• The global geoengineering market is projected to reach USD 2.5 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 15% (MarketsandMarkets, 2023).
• The Bering Strait dam’s construction involves costs exceeding USD 100 billion, factoring in engineering challenges, environmental safeguards, and geopolitical negotiations (Utrecht University, 2024).
• Climate stabilization via AMOC preservation could avert annual economic losses exceeding USD 1 trillion from extreme weather events (IPCC AR6, 2023; World Bank, 2023).
• Funding mechanisms and liability frameworks for geoengineering remain undefined, complicating project feasibility and risk allocation.

Comparative Governance: UK vs. Global Landscape

Governance and Geopolitical Challenges

• The Arctic region, including the Bering Strait, involves multiple nations with overlapping territorial claims and strategic interests, raising geopolitical tensions.
• Most geoengineering proposals inadequately address transboundary ecological risks, such as impacts on marine biodiversity and indigenous communities.
• Absence of binding international legal frameworks for geoengineering increases risks of unilateral actions and conflicts.
• Robust governance frameworks must integrate scientific assessment, environmental safeguards, liability mechanisms, and diplomatic engagement.

Way Forward

• India should invest in scientific research to understand AMOC dynamics and geoengineering risks, leveraging institutions like MoEFCC and collaborating with international bodies.
• Develop a comprehensive national policy on geoengineering that aligns with environmental laws and international obligations.
• Engage actively in international forums such as IMO, UNCLOS, and IPCC to shape binding governance frameworks for marine geoengineering.
• Prioritize multilateral cooperation in Arctic governance to mitigate geopolitical tensions related to proposals like the Bering Strait dam.
• Establish transparent funding and liability frameworks to address economic uncertainties and risk-sharing.