Cyclone Montha

Cyclone Montha and the Strengths, Gaps in India's Cyclone Management

On October 30, 2025, Cyclone Montha tore through coastal Andhra Pradesh with wind speeds exceeding 140 km/h. Classified as a "severe cyclonic storm," Montha displaced over 1.2 lakh people, caused 27 fatalities, and left ₹3,800 crore worth of infrastructure damage in its wake. Yet again, India's cyclone management framework faces scrutiny—not for intent, but for its capacity to fully match the scale of devastation.

The Policy Instrument: India's Cyclone Preparedness

India has an elaborate institutional framework to tackle cyclones. The India Meteorological Department (IMD), under the Ministry of Earth Sciences, is the nodal agency responsible for cyclone monitoring, forecasting, and early warning dissemination. Established in 1875, IMD uses sophisticated models such as the High-Resolution Weather Forecasting Model (HRWF) and the Cyclone Warning Dissemination System to anticipate and mitigate disaster impacts.

Since 2015, India has notably expanded its cyclone response mechanisms, funded heavily by schemes like the National Cyclone Risk Mitigation Project (NCRMP). Launched with World Bank assistance, the project saw ₹2,318 crore allocated in Phase II to strengthen cyclone shelters, improve early warning systems, and engage in coastal embankment projects. Furthermore, soft interventions—community training, emergency drills, and awareness programs—are part of the multi-pronged approach.

Montha's timely warnings revealed IMD's technical prowess. Warnings were issued seven days in advance, allowing mass evacuation efforts to save thousands of lives. The number of fatalities in Montha was substantially lower than in 1999’s Odisha Super Cyclone (over 10,000 deaths), reflecting incremental improvements. However, the gap between technical efficiency and long-term resilience remains glaring.

The Case For India's Approach

India's cyclone management model has several strong arguments in its favor. First, the decentralization of disaster response through State Disaster Response Forces (SDRFs) aligns local teams with ground realities. In Andhra Pradesh, SDRF personnel coordinated evacuation routes and distributed relief kits containing essential medicines, non-perishable foods, and portable shelters.

Second, digitized systems like Common Alert Protocol (CAP)—introduced in 2018—ensure warnings reach even remote villages via SMS, app notifications, and radio broadcasts. According to IMD’s 2023 annual report, the warning accuracy for cyclones now stands at 85%, up from 60% in 2015.

Third, India’s willingness to collaborate transnationally through initiatives like the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMCs) showcases its leadership. Coordinated data exchange among member nations improves predictions for the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea cyclones.

The Case Against: Skepticism in Implementation

Despite advanced warning systems, Montha exposed structural flaws in India's cyclone preparedness. First, coastal infrastructure remains inadequate. Of the 676 cyclone shelters mandated under NCRMP Phase II, only 478 are functional—posing severe risks, as Montha displaced more people than shelters could accommodate.

Second, compensation policies remain inconsistent. Surveys in Andhra Pradesh show that affected farmers received less than ₹5,000 per hectare as relief—an amount demonstrably insufficient for rebuilding saline-damaged crops. The dissonance between loss patterns and relief allocated fosters resentment among rural communities.

Third, bureaucratic delays in fund flow weaken long-term resilience efforts. For instance, while NCRMP budget allocations appear substantial, less than 55% of Phase II funds were fully disbursed as of March 2025. This underutilization stems from both central-state frictions and bureaucratic inefficiencies at the implementation level.

The irony here is striking: India's technical cyclone management infrastructure ranks among the best globally, yet institutional gaps keep amplifying human vulnerabilities during high-intensity storms.

Lessons From International Experience: Japan's Precision-Focused Model

Japan, prone to typhoons, offers a contrasting approach. The Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) adopts a localized precision model instead of blanket warnings. Micro-zonal mapping identifies urban versus rural vulnerabilities, guiding targeted evacuation and relief priorities. Early warning systems integrate seismic and hydrological alerts, calibrated to predict cascading events like landslides post-typhoon.

Moreover, Japan has pioneered "smart levee technologies", concrete embankments designed with retractable floodgates responsive to real-time data. This allows mitigation of storm surge flooding, an area where India still lags despite advancing embankment construction under NCRMP.

While Montha’s lower death toll suggests progress, Japan's experience underscores the untapped potential of blending precision strategy with robust infrastructure investments.

Where Things Stand: Balancing Priorities

India's cyclone management framework is robust on paper but uneven in execution. It prioritizes technical accuracy in forecasting but falters in downstream action—shelter undercapacity, relief inadequacy, and delayed fund utilization remain recurring issues.

Scaling resilience will require bridging these execution gaps alongside expanding precision tools like micro-zonal vulnerability assessments. While IMD continues delivering some of the world’s best forecasting data, systemic capacity-building across states and localities must be accelerated.

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