Rising Significance of the Western Indian Ocean

The Western Indian Ocean: A Missed Strategic Opportunity?

India’s heightened engagement in the Western Indian Ocean (WIO) through the SAGAR doctrine and multilateral frameworks signals ambition, but the underlying question remains: Is India fully leveraging its strategic footprint? While the rhetoric around maritime diplomacy and regional resilience is palpable, institutional, fiscal, and operational gaps threaten to dilute its efficacy.

The Institutional Landscape

The WIO encompasses vital maritime arteries including the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab el-Mandeb, and the Mozambique Channel, which facilitate nearly 40% of global trade. Governed by fragmented regional frameworks, the countries aligned along the WIO—ranging from Kenya to Madagascar—struggle with collective security and economic governance.

India’s SAGAR Doctrine: Launched in 2015, SAGAR emphasizes sustainable maritime engagement, environment protection, and defence cooperation. Complementing this approach, the Information Fusion Centre – Indian Ocean Region (IFC-IOR) in Gurugram plays a critical intelligence-sharing role.

China’s Expansion: The deployment of China’s 48th Naval Escort Fleet and its Belt and Road Initiative-backed infrastructure investments in Djibouti and Gwadar highlight its aggressive strategic foothold. Such moves, aimed at consolidating influence from energy corridors to seabed mapping, challenge India's regional primacy.

The WIO also contends with unresolved institutional challenges: piracy off the Somali coast remains resilient; narcotics trafficking originating near Afghanistan frequently navigates through this region; and illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing robs coastal economies of billions annually.

The Argument with Evidence

The Indian government touts its security-first approach, underscored by the deployment of naval assets and partnerships with nations such as France under the Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative (IPOI). Yet, this perspective is incomplete.

• India’s direct investment in African maritime infrastructure—a stark $680 million in Mauritius—is commendable but insufficient compared to China’s BRI spending exceeding $5 billion in WIO ports alone.
• The National Coastal Management Programme lacks clear alignment with WIO-level climate resilience needs, where coral bleaching and rising sea levels are devastating ecosystems.
• Operational exercises like Konkan 2024 showcase India’s emphasis on interoperability, but fiscal allocations to defence cooperation in the region have not scaled proportionately since the 15th Finance Commission capped budgetary allowances.

There is progress, including the INS Tarkash’s seizure of 2,500 kg of narcotics—a grim reminder of the region’s transnational crime vulnerability. However, this reactive posture belies proactive gaps in capacity-building, particularly for smaller island states like Seychelles and Comoros.

The Strongest Counter-Argument

Proponents of India’s maritime strategy argue that SAGAR fulfills dual imperatives: regional security and economic development. The IFC-IOR enhances maritime domain awareness, while India’s collaboration with TotalEnergies in Mozambique exemplifies ethical economic partnerships displacing China’s debt-driven agenda.

However, this narrative rests precariously on India’s limited engagement bandwidth. The lack of direct investment in port infrastructure—one of China's hallmark strategies—undermines India’s influence in large oceanic trade flows. Smaller regional stakeholders, while amenable to SAGAR’s inclusivity, may still pivot toward China's tangible gains in connectivity and logistics.

International Perspective: The Case of Japan

What India practices in SAGAR, Japan refines through its Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) strategy. Unlike India, Japan combines developmental assistance (via JICA loans) with targeted port infrastructure investments such as Mombasa's redevelopment. Notably, Japan's collaborative ventures with Kenya enhance direct diplomatic ties while strengthening Indo-Pacific maritime supply chain resilience—something SAGAR’s wider lens struggles to operationalize.

Assessment: Risks, Hopes, Realities

The Western Indian Ocean is not merely an energy and trade corridor—it is the strategic heart of the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), where maritime governance could reshape South-South cooperation entirely. Yet, India’s SAGAR-inspired engagement is hobbled by institutional fragmentation and fiscal conservatism.

India must amplify its operational capacity through joint development projects akin to Japan’s FOIP model. Enhancing investments in port redevelopment, strengthening regional governance mechanisms for issues like IUU fishing, and expanding IFC-IOR capacities remain realistic next steps.

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