Renewables to Lead India’s Power Mix by 2070

Coal's Decline and Renewables' Promised Rise by 2070

By 2070, coal may account for just 6–10% of India's electricity generation, a dramatic fall from its 74% dominance today, according to the NITI Aayog’s "Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero." This projection would herald a monumental shift in India’s power landscape, with renewables set to deliver over 80% of electricity—a target unprecedented in ambition, but fraught with logistical, technological, and policy hurdles.

The Transition Instrument: Laws, Budgets, and Frameworks

India’s installed power capacity currently stands at 513 GW. Of this, renewable energy sources contribute 50%, including leading positions globally: 3rd in solar power capacity, 4th in wind energy capacity, and 4th in total renewable capacity as reported by IRENA's RE Statistics 2025.

Policy initiatives aimed at achieving net-zero emissions exemplify the government’s push toward this greener future. The Green Energy Corridor promises better evacuation of renewables through upgraded transmission infrastructure. The PM-KUSUM Scheme targets rural solar deployment, while the National Green Hydrogen Mission advances decarbonisation in industries. The Production Linked Incentive (PLI) Scheme seeks to make India less dependent on imported high-efficiency solar photovoltaic modules. Even hybrid projects that combine solar and wind—boosted by the Renewable Energy Hybrid Policy—are gaining government backing. On paper, the architecture for a renewables-driven energy system is coming together.

The Case for Transforming India's Energy Mix

Stepping away from coal dominance has clear environmental benefits. India’s existing thermal fleet emits roughly 1.2 billion tonnes of CO₂ annually, contributing significantly to global carbon levels. Transitioning to renewables—provided the promised 80% share by 2070 materialises—could cut electricity-sector emissions by over two-thirds.

Economic arguments bolster this claim. In the long run, renewable electricity, particularly solar and wind, enjoys near-zero marginal costs. Capital investments—though high initially—offer enduring returns when contrasted with volatile imported coal prices. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that every megawatt of solar installed in India displaces approximately 2,500 metric tonnes of CO₂, saving crores annually in carbon-related externalities.

The distributed nature of clean energy sources such as rooftop solar further promises to decentralise power production, bringing electricity reliability to underserved regions. Models in states like Gujarat illustrate how decentralised systems can complement the main grid during peak demand.

The Case Against: Logistical, Regulatory, and Practical Barriers

Despite the optimism, data reveals troubling trends. Clean energy currently constitutes 22% of actual generation even while its installed share stands at 50%—a gap indicative of low Capacity Utilisation Factors (CUFs). For example, solar has a CUF of ~20% compared to coal’s reliable ~60%, reflecting its dependence on favorable weather and daylight hours. Grid dependency on coal persists, particularly to meet nightly electricity demand.

Storage constraints exacerbate renewables’ reliability issues. India lacks sufficient grid-scale battery infrastructure to store surplus solar power generated during the day for use at night or during cloudy conditions. The ongoing absence of time-of-day (ToD) pricing compounds inefficiencies, as tariff structures fail to incentivise daytime solar consumption. Institutional inertia is evident here—over two decades after initiating reforms in power markets, dynamic pricing remains unattainable for most DISCOMs (distribution companies).

Compounding these operational shortfalls are land acquisition bottlenecks and regulatory hurdles that slow large-scale renewable projects. Hybrid installations and battery systems particularly suffer under outdated approval mechanisms. India’s energy transition, therefore, finds itself entangled not only within the grid but also within bureaucratic red tape.

International Comparisons: Learning from Germany's Energiewende

Germany’s Energiewende ("energy transition") offers valuable lessons in transitioning to renewables. By 2023, renewables accounted for over 50% of electricity generation in Germany, aided by aggressive feed-in tariff policies, decentralised electricity markets, and community-owned wind farms. Unlike India, Germany simultaneously invested heavily in grid modernisation with synchronous battery installations.

However, Germany’s experience also highlights pitfalls: while renewables rose, grid reliance on coal and gas persists during demand spikes or harsh winters. The burden of high electricity costs, passed on to consumers due to subsidies, challenged public support. India risks replicating these issues without structural changes in grid reliability—and affordable pathways for scaling storage capacity.

Where Things Stand

It’s clear that India’s energy transition is ambitious and necessary, yet fundamentally constrained by systemic inefficiencies. Despite promising initiatives like the Green Energy Corridor, policy execution risks being outpaced by the monumental scale of grid modernisation and storage needs. The structural reliance on coal for RTC (round-the-clock) power remains firmly entrenched, weakening the case for renewables to lead without co-support from nuclear and decentralised systems.

To genuinely achieve an 80% renewable share by 2070, India must prioritise grid-scale battery development, hybrid energy models, and transitioning tariff structures alongside aggressive capacity installations. Current state-level variations also demand closer coordination between the Centre and States, without which implementation paralysis will persist.

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