Modern Warfare and India’s Emerging Security Challenges

India’s Defence Budget Versus Modern Warfare: A ₹1.8 Lakh Crore Dilemma

India’s defence capital outlay for 2025-26 stands at ₹1.8 lakh crore, of which over 75%—a significant ₹1.35 lakh crore—is earmarked for domestic procurement. On paper, this reflects the government’s commitment to indigenisation, with platforms like Tejas, Akash, Pinaka, and armed UAVs taking center stage. Yet, this investment enters a battlefield where conventional arms alone are insufficient. Modern warfare stretches the frontiers of conflict into cyber networks, disinformation backchannels, unmanned systems, counter-space capabilities, and precision standoff weaponry. The question is whether this budget—largely centered on hardware acquisition—reflects strategic readiness for a rapidly evolving threat landscape.

Modern Warfare: Beyond Bullets and Battlefields

The fundamental shift in warfare, marked by hybrid and grey-zone tactics, challenges India not on conventional fronts but in spaces where war is undeclared. Take cyber threats: India ranks among the top five countries globally targeted by cyberattacks, as reported by CERT-In. Or consider grey-zone pressure, illustrated by China during the Doklam standoff in 2017 and later, the Ladakh crisis in 2020. These episodes bypassed full-scale war but tested India's security apparatus, exposing soft spots in surveillance, response coordination, and international diplomatic leverage.

Then there’s maritime vulnerability—over 90% of India's trade by volume relies on sea routes, raising stakes against cyber intrusions targeting port systems. Space security isn’t far behind. India’s growing dependence on satellites for both civilian and military operations renders it vulnerable to anti-satellite weapons and electronic interference. Despite the progress made under India’s Defence Space Doctrine (2023) and Mission Shakti, experts argue these initiatives still require reinforced institutional support and inter-agency coordination.

The Case for India’s Current Investments

India’s push toward domestically developed military systems presents several advantages. Indigenous platforms allow greater operational flexibility during crises by reducing dependence on foreign suppliers constrained by geopolitical rivalries. For instance, the development of armed UAVs leverages India's technological competences while bolstering surveillance across contested borders. Furthermore, the consolidation of the Defence Space Agency (DSA) and Defence Cyber Agency (DCA) institutionalizes responses to emerging threats.

Structural reforms, notably the creation of the Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) and proposed Integrated Theatre Commands, promise improved coordination across domains. The integrated, capability-driven planning these reforms enable aligns well with modern strategies where battles are fought simultaneously across land, air, sea, cyber, and space. India’s demonstrated anti-satellite capabilities under Mission Shakti underscore the kind of deterrence needed in contested modern environments like space warfare.

Where Do Skeptics Disagree?

Despite the optimism, the budgetary allocations reveal a gap between ambition and execution strategy. For all its focus on indigenisation, India’s ₹1.35 lakh crore investment mostly addresses conventional needs—fighter aircraft, artillery, and naval hardware—without adequately prioritizing cyber resilience or AI-centric warfare capabilities. In fact, there is no major policy initiative addressing India’s vulnerability in cyberspace beyond DCA’s limited operational scope.

Another critique centers on whether India’s approach to space militarisation is robust. The Defence Space Doctrine (2023), while promising, lacks clarity on implications for international partnerships or compliance with evolving global norms in space. Moreover, India’s focus on long-range fires and hypersonic weapons risks falling into a technological arms race with limited payoff unless accompanied by sustained investment in intelligence systems capable of predictive battlefield analysis.

Lessons from the United States

The United States, facing similar threats, has invested heavily in AI-driven intelligence ecosystems. The U.S. DoD’s Project Maven integrates machine learning tools for real-time battlefield surveillance and decision-making, offering lessons for India’s own AI adoption initiatives. Additionally, their Space Command—not merely a doctrine but a functional agency—coordinates all military space operations with a clear emphasis on counter-space capabilities, setting a practical model. However, American overreliance on private sector contractors serves as a caution, often leading to unpredictable cost overruns and supply chain vulnerabilities.

India’s Strategic Crossroads

India stands at a decisive juncture. The rapid evolution of warfare necessitates a shift from hardware-centric to technology-driven planning. While structural reforms like CDS and Integrated Theatre Commands are promising, their implementation must keep pace with the threat environment's complexity. Without robust investments in cyber networks, autonomous systems, and space capabilities, India risks lagging in a domain where advantage lies in agility and foresight.

To be clear, India’s emerging security responses are steps in the right direction. But whether the ₹1.8 lakh crore allocation, and the institutional reforms around it, are enough to meet threats like grey-zone coercion and cyber disinformation campaigns remains uncertain. What’s definite is that modern warfare isn't waiting for India’s defense machinery to catch up.

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