Military AI and the Urgency of Guardrails

India’s Dilemma on Military AI: Strategic Flexibility or Ethical Lapses?

At the third global summit on Responsible Artificial Intelligence in the Military Domain (REAIM), held earlier this month, only 35 out of 85 participating countries signed the ‘Pathways to Action’ declaration. India was not among them. This abstention, along with similar moves by the United States and China, reflects an uneasy calculus: the pursuit of technological leadership juxtaposed against the growing imperative for ethical guardrails in military AI development. The irony is impossible to miss—India advocates for “responsible use” of AI in warfare but walks a tightrope, opposing both blanket bans and concrete regulatory mechanisms.

The Policy Instrument: REAIM and India’s Position

REAIM’s ‘Pathways to Action’ declaration aimed to secure a commitment to ensure that AI in military applications complies with principles of International Humanitarian Law (IHL) and meaningful human oversight. While about a third of the summit attendees endorsed the declaration, the sharp drop from 60 countries signing a similar document in the previous summit highlights deepening geopolitical divisions and technological insecurities. India’s position, articulated through diplomatic channels, emphasized support for a principle-based, non-binding global framework instead of legally binding measures.

India has clearly signaled that it finds a binding ban on Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems (LAWS) “premature.” The objections are twofold: the absence of a universally accepted definition of LAWS and the fast-evolving nature of AI technologies. Further complicating this stance are India’s significant investments in AI research and military modernization, funded partly through the ‘Defence AI Council’ and the indigenous push under the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO). The government has identified AI-based precision weapons and predictive battlefield intelligence systems as priority projects—projects that could be curtailed by inflexible global regulations.

The Case for Military AI: Precision, Speed, and Strategic Edge

Proponents argue that military AI promises game-changing advantages. First, there’s the potential for enhanced precision in targeting and reduced collateral damage. Autonomous drones equipped with real-time data analysis have demonstrated unprecedented accuracy in identifying and neutralizing threats in controlled trials. The United States, for instance, claims its AI-driven systems have reduced civilian casualties during strikes in the Middle East by over 27% between 2018 and 2023.

Second, AI enables faster decision-making—a critical need in the era of high-speed conflicts involving cyber, electronic, and physical threats. Systems like predictive analytics tools can synthesize sensory inputs from surveillance, satellites, and human intelligence to recommend tactical choices within seconds. This is particularly relevant for hybrid warfare, actively witnessed in recent theatres like Ukraine. Here, AI-augmented algorithms have been pivotal in countering cyberattacks and improving battlefield logistics.

Moreover, unmanned AI-powered systems drastically lower the direct risk to soldiers, making them indispensable for hostile environments such as border patrols in the Himalayas or naval operations in contested regions of the Indo-Pacific. In the long run, such technologies could level asymmetries in strategic deterrence, allowing India to maintain an edge against tech-superior adversaries like China.

The Case Against: Ethical Ambiguities and Strategic Risks

But the other side of the argument cannot be ignored. If AI in warfare raises the promise of precision, it also magnifies critical uncertainties. Biases in training data, algorithmic flaws, and technical glitches can lead to catastrophic consequences. The risk is not hypothetical. In 2020, a UN report on Libya flagged that a Turkish-made autonomous drone had engaged targets without human control, an alarming preview of what might happen if safeguards remain inadequate.

Even more troubling is the absence of accountability mechanisms. Who bears responsibility for algorithm-driven errors that result in mass civilian casualties? Existing frameworks under IHL or the Geneva Conventions do not address this vacuum because they are predicated on the assumption of human decision-making in wartime scenarios. With AI, culpability becomes splintered—does it rest with the programmer, the state, or the soldier deploying the technology?

There are also strategic risks. AI systems, often reliant on networked communications, remain vulnerable to cyberattacks. A hacked autonomous defense platform could become a weapon in the enemy’s hands—a critical vulnerability for countries banking on systems with cascading interdependencies. India’s limited expertise in cybersecurity, where less than 20% of critical infrastructure remains protected by indigenous solutions, further heightens such risks.

What Other Democracies Did: The Case of South Korea

South Korea offers a useful contrast. Instead of rejecting binding commitments outright, Seoul has adopted a cautious yet proactive approach to military AI regulation. In 2021, South Korea introduced operational guidelines requiring human oversight for all AI-enabled military operations. This includes a mandatory “kill switch” in all autonomous combat drones. Such intermediate guardrails allow technological innovation to continue while placing ethical safeguards on sensitive deployments.

Still, even this measured approach has faced challenges. Critics argue that guidelines, without enforcement mechanisms, are insufficient to deter misuse by non-state actors or rogue programmers. Nevertheless, South Korea’s measured stance demonstrates that accountability does not have to be sacrificed at the altar of innovation. By comparison, India’s opposition to even non-binding compliance norms raises questions about its long-term regulatory vision.

Where Things Stand: A Strategic Gamble

India’s abstention from REAIM’s declaration underscores the strategic conundrum of emerging powers: the desire to shape the future of warfare while avoiding externally imposed constraints. This rationale is not without merit. A premature regulatory straitjacket could limit India’s ability to catch up with technologically advanced adversaries. Yet, the absence of global—or even national—standards invites systemic chaos, where technological races incentivize shortcuts over safeguards.

The real risk is not just ethical violations but operational paradoxes: technologies intended for precision and security could escalate unpredictability and destabilization. India’s efforts at balancing innovation with diplomacy are understandable but insufficient. As AI proliferates in military applications, half-measures like advocating “principle-based frameworks” may prove to be too little, too late.

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