India’s Balancing Act in the Bay of Bengal

India’s Bay of Bengal Strategy: Progress at Sea, Drifting Ashore

The Bay of Bengal has become a critical theatre of India’s regional ambitions, yet its strategic engagement is undermined by policy inconsistencies and premature triumphalism. While India's maritime infrastructure and diplomacy have advanced, gaps in trade predictability, environmental commitments, and regional trust suggest that the balancing act is less poised than it seems.

The institutional landscape shaping India’s approach

The Bay of Bengal, bordered by eight countries, serves as a crossroads of economics, geopolitics, and ecosystems. India's role is mediated by regional frameworks like BIMSTEC and BBIN, alongside initiatives such as SAGAR and the Act East Policy. Military infrastructure like the Eastern Naval Command and the Andaman Tri-Service Command further solidifies India’s presence, both as a security guarantor and crisis-response actor.

Yet, challenges abound. China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has built competitive assets, including the Kyaukpyu Port in Myanmar and Hambantota in Sri Lanka. The BIMSTEC Maritime Transport Cooperation Agreement, signed in 2023, is promising yet hollow without delivery timelines, exposing India's hesitancy to deepen economic interdependence in the region.

On the environmental front, platforms like IORA and Indian commitments to hydrographic surveys and disaster management protocols aim to signal leadership but pale against the emerging climate threats that littoral states face every year.

Evidence of imbalance: Gaps in trade, security, and environmental alignment

India’s withdrawal of transshipment privileges for Bangladesh in 2022 exemplifies institutional inconsistencies that weaken trust. Official rhetoric aside, the Ministry of Ports, Shipping, and Waterways projected only 60% utilization of Sagarmala-related port cargo capacities in eastern India, leaving logistics corridors under-optimized. A lack of clarity affects partnerships with smaller states dependent on transit access.

Maritime security suffers similar pitfalls. The Indian Navy's MILAN exercise boasts participation from 40 countries, but less than 15 of them have operational partnerships with India for intelligence sharing. Crucially, piracy incidents doubled from 2021 to 2023 in Myanmar’s waters, showing political sensitivity and capacity gaps hampering India’s ability to coordinate littoral security.

The Climate Change Vulnerability Index (2023) ranked Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Sri Lanka among the top ten nations globally at risk from natural disasters, yet India’s regional climate adaptation funds remain comparably low. Rs. 850 crore allocated under Blue Economy Resilience Projects for 2023 was dwarfed by China's $3 billion coastal resilience funding across the Indian Ocean region.

Counter-narrative: Security architecture consoles skeptics

Critics may argue that India’s security architecture is robust enough to anchor regional stability. The Eastern Naval Command, with the Andaman islands hosting a tri-service command, is operationally capable of countering China's military manoeuvres or even piracy surges. India’s long-standing investments in radar trilaterals—such as agreements with Indonesia—have proven to limit transnational crime spillovers.

Moreover, India’s push for green shipping corridors under BIMSTEC ensures forward momentum in logistic sustainability, crucial for smaller nations like Maldives whose ports already receive Indian disaster management assistance.

Pointed international comparison: Japan’s Gulf of Thailand Diplomacy

Consider Japan’s approach to the Gulf of Thailand, often termed its "maritime sphere of engagement." Unlike India’s episodic focus on littoral states, Japan’s partnership model involves co-development of ports like Laem Chabang with host countries and joint ocean governance protocols. Both Thailand and Vietnam receive multi-sectoral grants and predictable exit timelines for Japanese-funded infrastructure, fostering goodwill while avoiding big-power dependency. India’s Bay of Bengal diplomacy, conversely, oscillates between episodic financial aid and lagging project execution.

Assessment: Recalibration needed, not larger ambitions

India's future lies in redefining predictability—be it in trade facilitation, diplomatic reliability, or environmental commitments. Lessons must be drawn from Sagarmala’s implementation delays and from the uneven bandwidth invested in BIMSTEC against Indo-Pacific projects under QUAD. The Bay of Bengal is no longer a natural sphere of influence; it is a contested economic geography that needs multilateral success stories to win over stakeholders.

What must change? Immediate transparency in port modernization frameworks, scaling of joint-response mechanisms for cyclones, and enabling confidence-building measures with Bangladesh and Myanmar under BBIN to counteract China’s Kyaukpyu model. Realpolitik demands an ambition tempered by honest self-appraisal.

Prelims Integration

• Q1: Which Indian initiative focuses on maritime governance, piracy control, and environmental sustainability in the Indian Ocean region?
  (a) Act East Policy
  (b) SAGAR
  (c) BIMSTEC Framework
  (d) Sagarmala Project
  Answer: (b) SAGAR
• Q2: The MILAN naval exercises are coordinated by:
  (a) Tri-Service Command
  (b) Ministry of Defense
  (c) Eastern Naval Command
  (d) Coast Guard
  Answer: (c) Eastern Naval Command

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