India and Russia Have a Steady, Time-Tested Partnership: MEA

India-Russia: A Partnership at Crossroads

The Ministry of External Affairs’ portrayal of India-Russia relations as “steady and time-tested” masks deeper structural tensions in the partnership. While historical camaraderie and shared geopolitical interests persist, the specter of shifting global alliances and economic pressures has exposed the fragility of this “privileged strategic partnership.” Beneath the veneer of cordiality, the relationship faces challenges stemming from disrupted defence supplies, trade imbalances, and Russia's increasing tilt toward China.

The Institutional Scaffolding of India-Russia Ties

India’s relationship with Russia operates under robust institutional mechanisms forged over decades. The Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation (1971), which solidified alignment during the Bangladesh Liberation War, set the precedent for strategic convergence. Post-Cold War diplomatic recalibration produced the 1993 Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation and the 1994 Military-Technical Cooperation Agreement, ensuring continuity in bilateral engagements.

In 2000, the declaration of a Strategic Partnership elevated ties, followed by its upgrade to a "Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership" in 2010. The India-Russia Intergovernmental Commission (IRIGC), divided into Trade, Economy, Science & Technology, Culture (IRIGC-TEC) and Military and Technical Cooperation (IRIGC-M&MTC), underscores a cooperative framework. A 2+2 Dialogue initiated in 2021 allowed deeper coordination in foreign and defence policy.

Challenges in Defence, Trade, and Strategic Realignment

India’s defence reliance on Russia remains significant but destabilized. Despite reduced dependence (from 72% of imports in 2010-14 to 36% in 2020-24, according to SIPRI), Russia remains the largest supplier of military equipment to India, including strategic assets like BrahMos missiles and S-400 air defence systems. However, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has delayed deliveries of MiG-29 fighter jets, Igla-S missiles, and spare parts. Operational readiness has been compromised, forcing India to recalibrate sourcing strategies.

Similarly, bilateral trade has surged—reaching $68.7 billion in FY 2024–25—but remains skewed in Russia’s favour. India’s import reliance is exacerbated by energy dependence, with Russian crude accounting for over 43% of total energy imports by mid-2025. Payment mechanisms have faltered under sanctions on Russian banks, with the push for rupee-rouble trade yet to yield results.

The divergence in strategic outlook worsens the equation. Russia’s growing alignment with China, evidenced by its active participation in the US-China-Russia Troika, poses a geopolitical dilemma for India. India’s deepening ties with QUAD and AUKUS, arguably aimed at countering Chinese aggression, conflict with Moscow’s Eurasian priorities.

MEA's Assertions vs Realpolitik

The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) lauds the "steady, time-tested" nature of ties, but these claims gloss over evident strains. While India insists on strategic autonomy—asserting its neutrality on the Ukraine conflict—Western powers, particularly the US, view this stance with suspicion. Washington’s imposition of 25% tariffs and proposed 500% penalties on countries engaging with Russia, coupled with calls to respect "Ukraine’s sovereignty," have put India in a diplomatic bind.

Moreover, India’s broader narrative of diversification—highlighted by efforts to engage Middle Eastern partners like Saudi Arabia for energy security—suggests that the government recognizes the risks of excessive dependence on Russia. The operational delays in defence imports only amplify this realization.

Counter-Narrative: A Pragmatic Partnership Amid Global Shifts

The strongest rebuttal to the critique of India-Russia ties is rooted in geopolitics. Russia’s support for India on multilateral platforms like BRICS and SCO, as well as joint coordination within the United Nations, reinforces its indispensability in India’s foreign policy. The historical alignment between the two countries—even during periods of intense global turbulence—suggests that the partnership is resilient against external pressures.

India’s demonstrated ability to balance conflicting interests—engaging Washington through QUAD while pursuing deeper Russia ties—affirms the viability of its strategic autonomy doctrine. Furthermore, the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), a joint initiative, symbolizes long-term logistical ambition, potentially offsetting current challenges.

The Germany Model: Trade Prioritization Amid Alliances

Germany’s post-Ukraine crisis reorientation is a lesson for India. Despite being a NATO member, Germany maintained pragmatic energy trade relations with Russia until forced discontinuation in 2022. India similarly defends its Russia engagement under the rubric of price-driven diplomacy. The German shift toward energy diversification—prioritizing LNG agreements across the globe—offers a template for India to reduce long-term dependency on Moscow, especially in hydrocarbons.

Assessing the Road Ahead

India and Russia must urgently address the structural issues underpinning their relationship. Defence ties require guaranteed delivery commitments, potentially through renegotiated contracts or third-party intermediaries. Trade imbalances—reflected in skewed import-export ratios—demand diversification efforts and currency stabilization initiatives.

While multilateral coordination through BRICS and SCO bolsters ties at a strategic level, geopolitical rifts threaten deeper cooperation. India's diplomatic narrative of strategic autonomy is credible, but balancing Moscow and Washington will consistently test this principle. Carefully tracking Russia’s alignment with China is pivotal.

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