Brief Context
Context The foreign ministers of Afghanistan, China and Pakistan agreed to expand their cooperation in multiple fields, including extension of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to Kabul. Concluding remarks The China–Pakistan–Afghanistan trilateral reflects China’s bid to secure its economic and security interests in South Asia. India must carefully calibrate its diplomacy—balancing engagement with global and regional powers, while advancing alternative connectivity and security framewo
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Syllabus: GS2/ International Relations
Context
- The foreign ministers of Afghanistan, China and Pakistan agreed to expand their cooperation in multiple fields, including extension of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to Kabul.
Objectives of the Trilateral meetings
- Connectivity and Economic Integration:
- Extend CPEC into Afghanistan, linking it to Central Asian markets.
- Completion of railway lines connecting Afghanistan to Pakistan.
- Exploration of Afghan mineral resources with Chinese investment.
- Political and Diplomatic Normalisation:
- Upgrade diplomatic representation between Afghanistan and Pakistan.
- Bring Taliban formally into the BRI framework despite lack of global recognition.
- Security Cooperation: Pakistan wants Afghanistan’s Taliban government to act against the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which operates from Afghan soil and frequently attacks Pakistani security forces.
- China has voiced concern over the Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM), accusing its fighters of using Afghan territory to launch attacks against China.
Significance of the meeting for concerned countries
- For China:
- Securing CPEC and BRI Projects: China wants to ensure the smooth progress of the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which is central to its Belt and Road Initiative. Instability in Pakistan and Afghanistan threatens Chinese investments.
- Expanding Economic Footprint: By including Afghanistan, China can access Central Asia’s trade routes and tap into Afghanistan’s mineral wealth.
- Regional Influence: The meeting strengthens China’s image as a mediator and power broker in South Asia after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan.
- For Afghanistan (Taliban Regime):
- Political Legitimacy: Taliban remains internationally unrecognised. Participation in Chinese-led platforms gives it diplomatic visibility and quasi-legitimacy.
- Economic Benefits: Extension of CPEC promises infrastructure, trade routes, and investment, much-needed for Afghanistan’s struggling economy.
- Balancing Regional Relations: Engagement with both Pakistan and China helps Taliban reduce isolation and project itself as a serious regional actor.
- For Pakistan:
- Security Concerns: Pakistan faces rising attacks from TTP fighters based in Afghanistan. The trilateral provides a channel to press the Taliban to act against them.
- Reviving CPEC: Political instability and militant attacks slowed down CPEC projects. Chinese involvement is vital to revive economic momentum.
- Diplomatic Leverage: By being central to both China and Afghanistan’s connectivity ambitions, Pakistan reinforces its role as a gateway to Central Asia.
Impact on India
- Sovereignty Concerns: India has consistently opposed the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), as it passes through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK).
- Any expansion of CPEC into Afghanistan further entrenches Pakistan and China’s projects in disputed territory, undermining India’s claims.
- Strategic Marginalisation: The trilateral excludes India, despite its historic role in Afghan development (infrastructure, Parliament building, hospitals).
- Security Challenges: Stronger China–Pakistan–Afghanistan alignment could embolden extremist elements hostile to India, especially if Taliban legitimisation continues without conditions.
- Connectivity Competition: China’s push for westward connectivity undermines Indian alternatives such as the Chabahar Port project and International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC).
Way Ahead for India
- Strategic Autonomy and Balancing: Continue selective engagement with China, maintain dialogue with the US, and strengthen ties with Russia, EU, and Indo-Pacific partners.
- Deeper Engagement with Afghanistan: Use humanitarian aid, infrastructure projects, and educational diplomacy to retain goodwill among Afghan people.
- Engage Taliban pragmatically without granting premature recognition, ensuring Indian security concerns are raised consistently.
- Enhanced Security Cooperation: Expand counterterror cooperation with SCO members, Central Asia, and even Taliban interlocutors where necessary, to prevent Afghan soil from being used against India.
- Connectivity Alternatives: Accelerated work on Chabahar Port and the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) to provide a counter-route linking India with Central Asia and Europe.
Concluding remarks
- The China–Pakistan–Afghanistan trilateral reflects China’s bid to secure its economic and security interests in South Asia.
- India must carefully calibrate its diplomacy—balancing engagement with global and regional powers, while advancing alternative connectivity and security frameworks that safeguard its national interests.
Source: TH