China’s Expanding Strategic Presence in IOR is a Challenge for India: Parliament Committee Report

China's Expanding Strategic Presence in the Indian Ocean Region: A Major Challenge for India

The Indian Ocean Region (IOR) has emerged as a major theatre of geopolitical contestation driven by China's calibrated strategy to expand its footprint. This reflects a deeper clash between India's natural regional leadership and China's strategic penetration through economic, military, and normative means. The dynamics are shaped by the Indian Ocean's pivotal role in global trade flows, energy supplies, and strategic chokepoints. The challenge lies in balancing regional stability while countering China's long-term maritime ambitions.

UPSC Relevance Snapshot

• GS-II: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and Agreements; India's Security Interests
• GS-II: Effect of Policies of Other Countries on India’s Interests
• Essay: Themes like “India as a Regional Power” or “Geopolitics of the Indian Ocean”

China's Expanding Strategic Footprint: Institutional and Structural Context

China has adopted a multifaceted approach to secure its long-term interests in the IOR. This includes initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), development of dual-use infrastructure, and deployment of naval assets. Unlike the overt militarisation seen in the South China Sea, China employs a subtler yet effective strategy in the IOR, leveraging economic tools backed by strategic military calibrations. India, as a dominant littoral power, sees this as a direct challenge to its traditional maritime hegemony.

• Key Institutions:
  • Chinese PLA Navy (PLAN): Responsible for strengthening China's naval presence in IOR with increased vessel deployments.
  • Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): A global infrastructure development strategy used by China to deepen its influence in the region, often perceived as "debt-trap diplomacy."
  • China-Indian Ocean Forum: Established in 2022 to create alternative regional architecture; sidelines India’s leadership.
• Strategic Assets:
  • Djibouti naval base (operational since 2017): Key outpost for China’s power projection.
  • Major infrastructure projects in Sri Lanka (Hambantota Port), Pakistan (Gwadar Port), and Myanmar (Kyaukphyu Port).

Key Challenges from China's Expanding Presence

1. Debt-Trap Diplomacy and Economic Coercion

• Countries like Sri Lanka have fallen into unsustainable debt cycles due to Chinese loans, leading to loss of strategic independence (e.g., Hambantota port lease).
• BRI projects often impose confidentiality clauses, limiting public scrutiny in borrowing nations.

2. Militarisation through Dual-Use Infrastructure

• Ports like Djibouti and Hambantota are formally commercial but possess significant military utility.
• Indian concerns rise over these facilities being used for maritime surveillance and logistical support for Chinese navy deployments.

3. Maritime Domain Awareness Compromised

• Chinese “research vessels” frequently operate in the IOR, collecting hydrographic and maritime data near sensitive regions like the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
• Such deployments enhance China's anti-submarine warfare capabilities, impacting India’s strategic calculations.

4. Increasing Diplomatic Marginalisation

• China-led platforms like the China-Indian Ocean Forum aim to marginalise India by offering alternatives to multilateral IOR frameworks dominated by India.
• Beijing’s increasing economic and military relations with regional players like Maldives, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan weaken India’s leverage in the region.

India's Strategic Response: Steps Taken to Counter China

India has adopted a multi-pronged strategy that combines diplomacy, regional capacity-building, and enhanced security initiatives to secure its core interests in the IOR.

• Regional Diplomacy:
  • Enhanced partnerships through SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region) doctrine and "neighbourhood first" policy.
  • Joint Maritime Exercises: Regular trilateral cooperation with like-minded partners (e.g., Malabar exercise with the US, Japan, Australia).
  • Bilateral assurances: Sri Lanka assured that facilities like Hambantota port will not be used against India’s strategic interests.
• Naval Modernisation:
  • Commissioning indigenous capabilities like INS Vikrant, India’s first domestically built aircraft carrier.
  • Expansion of submarine fleet (e.g., Project-75 includes six Scorpène-class submarines).
• Alternative Connectivity Frameworks:
  • India-led projects like Chabahar Port and International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) offer alternatives to Chinese infrastructure in the region.

India vs China: Strategic Dynamics in the IOR

Critical Evaluation of India's Strategy

While India has taken significant steps to enhance its strategic posture in the IOR, challenges remain. India's naval modernisation is slow compared to China's rapidly expanding fleet. The limited funding for infrastructure projects such as Chabahar constrains India's connectivity strategy. Additionally, smaller IOR nations are often attracted to Chinese assistance due to its scale and financial incentives, despite the risks of debt dependency.

Structured Assessment

• Policy Design Adequacy: India’s SAGAR initiative has established a strong framework, but execution often falls short, particularly in maritime domain awareness.
• Governance and Institutional Capacity: India's naval modernisation and HADR (Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief) framework have positioned it as a key regional security provider.
• Behavioural and Structural Factors: Perceptions of trustworthiness and reliability give India a diplomatic edge, but lack of economic depth dilutes its influence in smaller states.

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