Canadian FM Visit to India

The Fragile Revival: India-Canada Relations Post Canadian FM's Visit

On October 14, 2025, the Canadian Foreign Minister concluded a milestone visit to India, marking the formal thawing of relations that had been frozen over political and security disputes for much of the past two years. Among the key announcements was the relaunch of the Canada-India Ministerial Energy Dialogue, a decision aimed at facilitating cooperation on **renewables and critical minerals**—a sector where India hopes to leverage Canada’s expertise in hydrogen and rare earths. But while the headlines herald a new chapter, the undercurrent of mistrust remains difficult to ignore.

Diplomatic Reset Hinges on Policy Instruments

This formal diplomatic reset traces back to PM Modi’s sideline meeting with his Canadian counterpart at the G7 Summit in Kananaskis, Alberta, earlier this year. Two key steps followed swiftly: the reinstatement of high commissioners in Ottawa and Delhi, and now ministerial-level talks in multiple domains.

Among the key agreements signed during the Canadian Foreign Minister’s visit are:

• A relaunch of the Joint Science and Technology Cooperation Committee, dormant since 2020, with new avenues for Canadian artificial intelligence researchers participating in India’s AI Impact Summit 2026.
• Preliminary discussions on Small Modular Reactor (SMR) technology, potentially a game-changer in civil nuclear energy if successful—but particularly complex given India’s independent nuclear regulatory framework.
• An agreement to recommence the stalled Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) negotiations, which have been in limbo since differences over market access for dairy and pulses emerged.

The timing of these agreements reflects pragmatism. Bilateral trade stood at $33.9 billion in 2024, a substantial figure but dwarfed by India’s trade volumes with the UK and Australia, both Commonwealth economies like Canada. More starkly, Canada’s merchandise exports to India—just $5.3 billion—barely scratch the surface of untapped opportunities.

The Case for Renewed Engagement

Advocates of closer ties would argue that shared interests far outweigh past grievances. Canada’s expertise in clean energy transitions, particularly in green hydrogen, provides synergy with India’s commitment to achieving 500 GW of non-fossil fuel capacity by 2030. Trade liberalization under CEPA could see Canadian pulse producers gain wider access to Indian markets, reducing domestic dependency on pricier imports from Australia and Myanmar.

On the nuclear front, the existing Nuclear Cooperation Agreement (NCA) signed in 2010, operational since 2013, has helped establish transparency in energy partnerships. Small modular reactors represent an opportunity to enhance such cooperation further, particularly if housed within a robust regulatory framework ensured by bilateral mechanisms.

The people-to-people ties are another pillar of strength. Indigenous Indo-Canadians, numbering over 1.8 million, represent 3% of Canada’s population. India is also the largest source of international students, making up 40% of Canada’s foreign student population. These connections contribute not only to educational exchanges but to the cultural soft power India wields in setting the tone for diplomacy.

But Skepticism Persists—And Not Without Reason

Despite the positive framing, India remains understandably cautious. The specter of Khalistani extremism continues to mar conversations, with Canada repeatedly seen as reticent in clamping down on anti-India activities within its borders. Can renewed ministerial dialogues truly neutralize a political irritant tied to domestic votes in Canada? Skepticism over implementation abounds.

The Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), while significant, remains burdened by unresolved structural irritants. Canadian dairy industry protections and India’s pulse import sensitivities have stalled previous rounds of negotiations. What assurance exists that the relaunch won’t repeat the same deadlock of years past?

Perhaps most concerning is the reliance on SMR nuclear technology. While promising, this innovation is still in experimental phases worldwide and **completely unintegrated into operational energy grids** even in highly advanced nuclear economies. The risk of over-promising—and under-delivering—remains acute unless Canada and India invest heavily in regulatory harmonization.

What Other Democracies Did: Australia’s Example

India’s ties with Australia offer a worthwhile comparison. Like Canada, Australia hosts a vibrant Indian diaspora and balances economic priorities alongside geopolitical frictions. Yet, unlike Canada, Canberra has proactively reassured New Delhi by curbing anti-India radicalism and expediting trade negotiations—culminating in the Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement (ECTA) signed in 2022.

The result? Two-way trade between India and Australia surged from $25 billion in 2022 to over $45 billion by 2024. This demonstrates how political will, coupled with enforceable trade mechanisms, can overcome ideological divergences.

Where Things Stand Now

The Canadian FM’s visit is clearly a welcome thaw, but substantial hurdles remain—notably Canada’s domestic political constraints and India’s recurring doubts about Ottawa’s geopolitical reliability. The success of these agreements will hinge, not just on goodwill, but on measurable outcomes such as growth in the bilateral trade figure and transparency in critical minerals cooperation.

Ultimately, fostering resilience in India-Canada relations will demand pragmatism over rhetoric, and swift action over drawn-out diplomatic posturing. Whether both countries can survive the political and logistical grind of implementing their ambitious agenda remains an open question.

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