Brief Context
Context According to an analysis by ICAR-National Institute of Agricultural Economics and Policy Research (ICAR-NIAP), India’s aggregate food demand is projected to exceed twice the current demand by 2047. Major Findings Increase in Population: By the 100th year of its independence in 2047, India aims to attain the status of a developed nation. By this time, of the projected 1.6 billion population, approximately half may reside in urban areas.
Source Content
Syllabus: GS3/Agriculture
Context
- According to an analysis by ICAR-National Institute of Agricultural Economics and Policy Research (ICAR-NIAP), India’s aggregate food demand is projected to exceed twice the current demand by 2047.
Major Findings
- Increase in Population: By the 100th year of its independence in 2047, India aims to attain the status of a developed nation.
- By this time, of the projected 1.6 billion population, approximately half may reside in urban areas.
- Increase in Demand: By 2047, India’s demand for nutrient-rich foods, including horticultural and animal products, is expected to increase three to four times.
- Land Shrinking: Agricultural land needed to meet this increased food demand is expected to shrink to 176 million hectares (mha) from the current 180 mha.
- The cropping intensity is likely to increase to 170% from the current 156%.
- Structural Changes in Agriculture: By 2047, Agriculture’s contribution to the national income may decrease to 8% from the current 18%.
- The average landholding size is expected to decrease significantly to 0.6 hectares from approximately one hectare now.
- Farmers would increasingly diversify their production portfolios towards less land-intensive activities such as animal husbandry and fisheries.
- Projections indicate an increase in the contribution of livestock to the gross value of agricultural output to 39% from the current 31%, and of fisheries to 10% from 7%.
- Impact of climate change on agriculture: Over the past five decades, extreme climate events such as droughts, heat waves, and floods have reduced India’s agricultural productivity growth by approximately 25%.
- India’ water use efficiency is also low at 35-40%, which is roughly one-third to one-half of the efficiency levels observed in China, Brazil, and the United States.
- Agriculture is a major consumer of water (83 per cent), and by 2047, its demand will be approximately 18 per cent higher than its current use.
| Agrifood Systems – It refers to the entire network of activities, people, and institutions involved in producing, processing, distributing, consuming, and disposing of food and agricultural products. Key Components of Agrifood Systems: 1. Production: Farming, livestock, fisheries, forestry, etc. 2. Processing: Converting raw products into consumables (e.g., milling wheat into flour, canning vegetables). 3. Distribution: Transporting and selling food—wholesalers, retailers, and markets. 4. Consumption: What people eat, their preferences, nutrition, and health outcomes. 5. Waste Management: Food loss during production or processing and food waste at the consumer level. |
Policy Recommendations
- Efficient Management of Water Resources: Rainwater harvesting and groundwater recharge are essential for sustainable water resource management.
- Water use efficiency currently stands at 35–40%; a 10% improvement could irrigate an additional 14 million hectares.
- Power Sector Reforms: Phasing out universal electricity subsidies and targeting only needy farmers can help curb the overuse of electricity and groundwater.
- Fertilizer Sector Reforms: Current subsidy system favors nitrogenous fertilizers, disrupting NPK balance.
- Linking subsidies to Soil Health Cards can optimize fertilizer use and restore soil health.
- Emerging tech like nano-fertilizers and drone-based precision fertilization can enhance efficiency and reduce environmental harm.
- Climate Change Mitigation: Single risk mitigation strategies are inadequate; integrated climate-smart practices are more effective (resilient varieties, efficient irrigation, etc.).
- Digital tools (remote sensing, drones) can improve risk assessment and enable region-specific insurance.
- Investment in Agricultural R&D: India spends only 0.43% of AgGDP on R&D (vs. global average of 0.93%); private sector share is low (7%).
- Need sustained public investment and private/philanthropic partnerships.
- Crop Planning and Diversification: Must align cropping with resource endowments and climate, but profitability is key for farmer adoption.
- High-value crops (fruits, vegetables) require strong market infrastructure, cold storage, and financial support.
- De-stress Agriculture Employment: Agriculture faces excessive labor pressure due to slow rural industrialization.
- Promote agri-startups and MSMEs to create jobs and add value to farm produce.
- Strengthening Market Infrastructure & Value Chains: Market infrastructure has not matched growing commercialization in agriculture.
- Strengthen FPOs, cooperatives, and contract farming to improve market access and reduce risks.
Conclusion
- The challenges facing the agri-food system are multifaceted and interconnected, and their management requires a comprehensive approach encompassing technological and institutional innovations, investments in infrastructure, and reforms in incentive structures.
Source: DTE