38th India-France Strategic Dialogue

The 38th India–France Strategic Dialogue: Optimism, But Is It Enough?

15.11 billion USD. That’s the current bilateral trade figure between India and France for 2023–24, a number that underscores growth but pales against China-France trade volumes that crossed €100 billion in the same period. During the 38th India−France Strategic Dialogue on 14 January 2026, co-chaired by National Security Adviser Ajit Doval and Emmanuel Bonne, Diplomatic Adviser to the French President, both nations reaffirmed their intent to deepen strategic cooperation. Yet, behind the warm rhetoric lies a stark question: does this partnership truly fulfill its potential, or is it still shackled by persistent institutional hurdles?

Defense Ties and Technology Collaboration: Building on Legacy

India and France's joint defence efforts—including the acquisition of Rafale jets, Scorpene submarines under Project P-75, and the co-development pact between Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) and Safran Helicopter Engines—are foundational pillars of this strategic partnership. Most recently, an Inter-Governmental Agreement concluded procurement of 26 Rafale-M fighter jets for the Indian Navy. Annual joint exercises like Shakti, Varuna, and FRINJEX-23 further highlight shared military priorities.

However, operational depth remains uneven. While France has supported defense co-manufacturing under Make in India, concerns persist over the extent of technology transfer in high-value items, particularly next-gen fighter jet engines. If India seeks genuine technological sovereignty, co-development models must evolve from assembly-line setups to R&D-driven innovation—something HAL and Safran’s next-gen engine project may test.

Barriers in Civil Nuclear Collaboration

Jaitapur, touted as the world’s largest nuclear power facility, has languished for over a decade despite India and France signing a civil nuclear agreement in 2008. French firms, constrained by India’s Civil Liability for Nuclear Damage Act (2010), are reluctant to invest without clarity on liability terms. France’s agreement on modular reactors (Small Modular Reactors, SMRs, and Advanced Modular Reactors) at the 2025 Strategic Dialogue Task Force is promising, but progress is contingent on resolving legal bottlenecks. Notably, reactor capacity targets remain absent, diluting accountability for deliveries.

Indo-Pacific: Allies with Different Agendas?

India and France are visibly committed to the Indo-Pacific. The Horizon 2047 Roadmap emphasizes enhanced maritime security and joint military presence. France, with territories like Reunion Island and a large Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) in the Indo-Pacific, has both incentive and expertise to collaborate. But shared Indo-Pacific goals often clash with geopolitical realities. France’s economic ties with China, topping €100 billion in trade, dilute alignment with India on Chinese sphere-of-influence challenges.

Even broader divergence exists in Middle East alignments—France’s softer stances on Iran and differing positions on Israel–Palestine often conflict with India's strategic calculus. This raises questions about whether the promises of “global good” through defense exports to third countries can materialize without clearer mutual clarity in geopolitical goals.

The Global Lens: Lessons from the US Defense Ecosystem

In comparison, the India−France dialogue could learn much from the India−United States defense technology framework. The U.S. signed the landmark BECA (Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement) allowing seamless geospatial data sharing essential for missile systems. Crucially, the U.S. pushed co-development mechanisms via the Defense Trade and Technology Initiative (DTTI), providing deeper stakes in research rather than hardware purchases. France’s technology-sharing hesitancy, especially in defense, appears less aggressive by comparison.

Structural Tensions: Trade Imbalance Reflects Systemic Limitations

France’s rank as India’s fifth-largest EU trading partner—trailing Germany, Netherlands, Belgium, and Italy—reveals untapped economic potential. While the Unified Payment Interface (UPI) integration signals innovation-friendly cooperation, scope remains limited compared to deeper French technology penetration in German markets. Critical gaps are visible in India’s renewable energy agenda too, where French investments remain overshadowed by Germany’s expansive solar capacity initiatives.

Moreover, India's aspirations for greater multilateral alignment often collide with differences in institutional cultures. France’s defense procurement systems—rooted in complex bureaucracy—resist India's demands for flexible technology transfer models under Make in India. The principles of strategic autonomy, ironically, must contend with France’s tight controls on export licensing.

What Success Should Look Like

For India-France strategic ties to genuinely flourish, certain metrics must rise sharply: doubling bilateral trade to $30 billion+ by 2030, deploying operational modular nuclear reactors within ten years, and institutionalizing annual milestones for joint defence research. Enhanced maritime exercises, practical Indo-Pacific policy alignment, and technology export models that generate third-country orders will define tangible outcomes.

Yet the dialogue’s long-term viability depends on bridging institutional divides. Reformulating liability laws for civil reactors, diversifying beyond traditional defence, and resisting geopolitical friction will remain crucial.

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