CA Topic

US Strikes on Venezuela

January 5, 2026 en

Brief Context

Context The US strikes on Venezuela have brought to the forefront concerns over violations of international law, breach of national sovereignty reinforcing perceptions of U.S. imperialism. Probable Reasons for US Attack on Venezuela Oil Reserves: Venezuela holds about 18% of the worlds oil reserves, more than Saudi Arabia (around 16%), Russia (about 5-6%), or the United States (around 4%).

Source Content

Syllabus: GS2/IR

Context

The US strikes on Venezuela have brought to the forefront concerns over violations of international law, breach of national sovereignty & reinforcing perceptions of U.S. imperialism.
- However, data shows that the U.S. attack on Venezuela is unlikely to have any direct impact on India’s energy security.

Probable Reasons for US Attack on Venezuela

Oil Reserves: Venezuela holds about 18% of the world’s oil reserves, more than Saudi Arabia (around 16%), Russia (about 5-6%), or the United States (around 4%).
- Venezuela alone has more crude oil reserves than the US and Russia combined.
Countering China’s Expansion in Latin America: China, the world’s largest crude oil importer, has emerged as the biggest buyer of Venezuelan oil.
- Venezuela is a strategic node in China’s energy security and global influence, making it geopolitically sensitive for the U.S.
U.S. Deals: The United States has signed trade deals with partners such as the European Union, Japan, South Korea and the United Kingdom, getting commitments from them to buy U.S. petroleum products and LNG, without having sufficient crude oil or refining capacity.
Resurrection of the Monroe Doctrine: The US has described the operation as consistent with the US foreign policy known as the Monroe Doctrine.
Other Stated and Unstated Motives: Allegations of state-sponsored drug trafficking
- Containment of socialist political ideology
- Addressing mass migration flows towards the U.S.

Venezuela Share in Oil Supply

– Venezuela is a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), a group of countries that largely dominates the global oil market.
– However, Venezuela currently produces a relatively small amount of crude oil compared to the other oil-producing nations.
a. Venezuela accounts for about 3.5% of OPEC’s total oil exports, and about 1% of global oil supplies.
– This relatively low supply is due to the U.S. sanctions on Venezuela and the heavy nature of Venezuelan oil, which requires special refineries that most countries do not have. Most of Venezuela’s oil supply goes to China.

Monroe Doctrine

– Background: It was announced by US President James Monroe in 1823 during his annual address to Congress.
a. It came at a time when many Latin American countries had gained independence from European colonial powers.
– Core Principles
a. Non-Colonisation: The American continents were no longer open to future European colonisation.
b. Non-Intervention: European powers should not interfere in the political affairs of the Americas.
c. Separate Spheres of Influence: Western Hemisphere and Europe were to remain distinct political spheres.
d. US Assurance: The US would not interfere in European internal affairs and would respect existing European colonies in the Americas.
– Roosevelt Corollary: In 1904, President Theodore Roosevelt introduced the “Roosevelt Corollary,” which asserted that the United States had the right to intervene in the Americas under certain circumstances.
a. This addition claimed a US right to intervene in Latin American countries to prevent European involvement.
b. The doctrine was used to justify US interventions in Cuba, Nicaragua, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic.

Analysis of Impact on India

Oil Import from Venezuela: India imported $255.3 million worth of oil from Venezuela in the current financial year in 2025, about 0.3% of its total oil import during this period.
- Since 2019, India has been cutting its oil imports and commercial engagements with Venezuela in response to U.S. sanctions.

Bilateral Trade: India’s bilateral trade is now relatively small and shrinking further.
- In 2024–25, India imported goods worth just $364.5 million from Venezuela, of which crude oil accounted for $255.3 million.
- This marked a steep 81.3% decline from imports of $1.4 billion in 2023–24.
- India’s exports to Venezuela stood at $95.3 million, led mainly by pharmaceutical products worth $41.4 million.
Impact on India: Given the low trade volumes, existing sanctions constraints, and the large geographical distance, the current developments in Venezuela are not expected to have any meaningful impact on India’s economy or energy security.

Way Ahead

The US invasion of Venezuela comes at a time when India is actively diversifying its crude basket, amidst the Indo-US trade negotiations.
- If sanctions on Venezuela are eased, Venezuelan crude could offer additional flexibility to Indian refiners and help ease supply concentration risk.
In this emerging global order, wars for raw materials and energy resources are likely to intensify in the coming years.
India must therefore act cautiously, protect its strategic autonomy, avoid deals that weaken sovereignty or long-term interests, and secure critical raw material and energy access without geopolitical pressure.

Source: TH