Brief Context
In News The Chinese population has been consistently declining since 2022 Status of China’s Population China’s population fell for the fourth consecutive year in 2025, dropping by 3.39 million to 1.405 billion. Births fell to 7.92 million in 2025, down 17% from 9.54 million in 2024. Crude Birth Rate declined to 5.63 per 1,000 people, the lowest in decades.
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Syllabus: GS1/ Demographic Dividend, GS3/Economy
In News
- The Chinese population has been consistently declining since 2022
Status of China’s Population
- China’s population fell for the fourth consecutive year in 2025, dropping by 3.39 million to 1.405 billion.
- Births fell to 7.92 million in 2025, down 17% from 9.54 million in 2024.
- Crude Birth Rate declined to 5.63 per 1,000 people, the lowest in decades.
- Deaths increased to 11.31 million, further accelerating population shrinkage.
- As per the UN ,China’s population is projected to decline from 1.4 billion to about 1.3 billion by 2050, with nearly 40% of citizens aged over 60, reinforcing concerns that the country will age before it becomes rich.
Steps to Increase Population
- President Xi Jinping ended the one-child policy in 2016, first allowing two children and later expanding it to three children in 2021, but these measures have failed to reverse the population decline.
- China has introduced financial incentives for parents, reduced childcare and education costs, raised the retirement age, and launched campaigns to promote marriage and childbirth.
- It has also adjusted policies such as higher age limits for civil service exams and measures to protect pension funds.
- However, these efforts face major challenges including high living and childcare costs, unemployment, healthcare expenses, gender imbalance, and lingering effects of the one-child policy.
Impacts of Declining Birthrate
- Economic Growth: Shrinking labor force threatens China’s manufacturing dominance and innovation capacity.
- Aging Population: Higher dependency ratio as elderly outnumber youth, straining pensions and healthcare.
- Social Pressures: Rising costs of child-rearing, urban housing, and education discourage family formation.
- Policy Challenges: Government incentives (tax breaks, housing subsidies) have failed to reverse the trend.
India’s Birthrate and Fertility Trends
- The Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) of India has declined from 39 per 1000 live births in 2014 to 27 per 1000 live births in 2021.
- Neonatal Mortality Rate (NMR) has declined from 26 per 1000 live births in 2014 to 19 per 1000 live births in 2021.
- Under-Five Mortality Rate (U5MR) has declined from 45 per 1000 live births in 2014 to 31 per 1000 live births in 2021.
- The Sex Ratio at Birth improves from 899 in 2014 to 913 in 2021. Total Fertility Rate is consistent at 2.0 in 2021, which is a significant improvement from 2.3 in 2014.
How China’s demographic slowdown presents strategic opportunities for India?
- India with a younger population can attract investments from labor-intensive industries shifting out of China.
- Rising wages in China and a shrinking workforce may drive companies to India to maintain cost-effective production.
- India could see an increase in demand for goods and services in a changing Chinese economy.
- Stable fertility ensures a large working-age population, supporting economic growth.
- India’s focus on SDG 2030 targets emphasizes sustainable population health and equitable growth.
Conclusion and Way Ahead
- China’s falling birthrate is transforming its economy and society, creating global consequences.
- For India, it presents an opportunity to capitalize on its younger population in manufacturing, trade, and talent, making how India leverages this demographic advantage key to its future growth.
- India’s near-replacement fertility rate offers a demographic advantage if harnessed through education, healthcare, and employment policies.
Source :TH